Analyst: U.S. Military Strained by Munitions Shortfalls in Iran War

Nearly six months into the war with Iran, the U.S. military's ability to dictate terms to Tehran is increasingly constrained by depleted weapons stockpiles, according to defense analyst Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Speaking on NPR's Fresh Air, Pettyjohn said reports of munitions shortages are "absolutely credible for particular types of weapons," even as the Trump administration disputes such accounts. She said the U.S. retains deep stockpiles of short-range precision weapons like JDAMs and glide bombs, but faces shortfalls in longer-range, more expensive systems.

The most acute gap, she said, is in defensive interceptors such as the Patriot missile and THAAD systems, which are used to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles. Patriot's newest variant costs roughly $3.9 million per missile, she said, and production cannot keep pace with demand.

"We definitely don't have enough of those," Pettyjohn said, adding that the shortage affects both the U.S. ability to defend its Gulf allies and bases and its capacity to launch further offensive strikes against Iran, since the two missions draw on the same limited stockpiles.

The Washington Post has reported that President Trump confronted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the munitions issue at a Camp David retreat, an account the White House press secretary called "100% fake news."

Pettyjohn also said history suggests airpower alone rarely produces durable political outcomes, comparing the current campaign to the 1999 Kosovo war against Slobodan Milosevic. She said the disparity in stakes — with the war existential for Iran's regime but not for the U.S. — signals limits on what Washington is willing to risk to achieve its goals, short of committing ground forces.