Trump's Ground Beef Tariff Cut Unlikely to Lower Prices Much

President Trump announced a plan Friday to temporarily lower tariff rates on some imported ground beef, aiming to reduce prices for the American dietary staple, but agricultural economists say the effect on consumers will be minimal.

Trump said on social media the U.S. would "allow up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported with no out of quota tariff," adding there was a commitment that the beef would sell at 25% below current market prices.

The move comes weeks before the November midterm elections, with the economy and cost of living expected to be top voter concerns. Ground beef prices have jumped nearly 57% over the past five years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and consumers paid an average of $6.89 per pound last month.

"I don't think it's going to be $1.50 [less]," said Andrew Griffith, a University of Tennessee professor who studies livestock economics. "Now, we might see a quarter to 35 cents [less]."

Jaime Luke, a livestock economist at Michigan State University, said the additional 300,000 metric tons would represent only about a 2% increase in the domestic beef supply. She also noted it's unclear whether the imported beef would be in addition to existing imports or simply benefit from a lower tariff on beef already headed to the U.S.

Griffith said any savings for shoppers would likely be temporary since the lower tariff applies for only 90 days, while the U.S. imported about 542 million pounds of ground beef in June alone — nearly matching the 661 million pounds covered by the new quota. For a typical consumer eating 60 pounds of ground beef a year, a 25-cent decrease would mean about $15 in annual savings.

The plan has drawn criticism from the cattle industry, already strained by rising costs, a screwworm parasite and the smallest domestic herd in decades. The National Cattlemen's Beef Association said undercutting American ranchers with "inferior product from foreign competitors" does nothing to rebuild the herd.

Some Republican senators also objected. South Dakota's Mike Rounds said, "This hurts!" and called for stronger protections for domestic producers. Montana's Tim Sheehy said Trump's "heart is in the right place" but warned the plan would make it harder for ranchers to rebuild herds and lower prices long-term.

A University of Illinois and Purdue University survey found that food affordability will strongly influence November votes for 41% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats surveyed.