Nigeria's Tinubu Faces Fractured Opposition as Campaign Begins

Nigeria's electoral commission formally opened the presidential campaign season on Wednesday, setting up a January 16 election in which incumbent President Bola Tinubu will seek reelection against a divided opposition.

The presidential vote will be held alongside parliamentary elections, with gubernatorial races following on February 6. Tinubu faces 18 opposition candidates, though analysts expect the contest to effectively narrow to three, including the two men he defeated in 2023: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress.

The election comes amid worsening economic and security conditions that have fueled anger toward Tinubu's government. His administration's removal of a longtime fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira currency were praised by investors but triggered soaring inflation, contributing to what analysts describe as the country's worst economic hardship in a generation. Mass kidnappings and killings have also persisted and spread to previously unaffected regions.

Despite the discontent, analysts say a split opposition could again favor Tinubu, as it did in 2023, when he won with one of the lowest vote shares ever recorded for an elected Nigerian president. An opposition coalition formed by Atiku and Obi in 2025 to challenge Tinubu collapsed before launching.

"Voters are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the administration's handling of inflation, insecurity and unemployment but because the anti-incumbent vote is split, the president has the edge," said Ikemesit Effiong, a partner at Lagos-based risk advisory firm SBM Intelligence.

Tinubu has further consolidated power through defections, with 31 of Nigeria's 36 state governors now belonging to his ruling All Progressives Congress, prompting fears — denied by the national government — of a one-party state. Analysts say governors' grassroots influence, and allegations that some have worked with local election officials to manipulate results, could benefit Tinubu.

"No matter how bad things are, Tinubu will still win because they are not working together," said Juliet Onah, a resident of the capital, Abuja, referring to the opposition's failure to unite.