Fake Polling Firm Fooled LA Mayor's Campaign, Others

A previously unknown political firm called Median Strategies has admitted to fabricating at least three election polls posted online this month, in a case that exposes how easily unverified survey data can spread through political discourse.

The fake results included a purported poll on the Los Angeles mayoral race showing incumbent Mayor Karen Bass leading councilmember Nithya Raman by about 12 percentage points. Bass's campaign shared the poll on social media last week, declaring it evidence the campaign was "gaining momentum," and it was also covered by the California Post before Median Strategies admitted to the Los Angeles Times on Monday that the numbers were fake.

The company, which has since taken down its website, said it "was created as a short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification." It offered no explanation of who was behind the effort or its purpose.

The Bass campaign deleted its post but defended itself, noting the poll "was reported on by multiple news outlets." Campaign spokesman Alex Stack said "any bad faith attempts to influence elections should be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law."

Median Strategies also posted fabricated polls on the Democratic primary for governor in Wisconsin and the gubernatorial race in Nevada. None of the polls appeared in Associated Press coverage, and major independent aggregators — The New York Times, Real Clear Politics and FiftyPlusOne — excluded them from their databases because the firm failed to disclose basic methodological information, including who ran the company.

Will Davis of The New York Times said releasing such information is "standard practice for pollsters," and because Median Strategies did not provide it, the poll was excluded. Mary Radcliffe of FiftyPlusOne said the firm never answered her questions about its voter file source and polling vendor.

Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster who leads EyesOver, said the episode reflects a broader problem: "It's never been easier to make invented numbers look legitimate, and campaigns and outside groups have every incentive to amplify anything favorable before anyone verifies it."

The fake poll also moved money on prediction markets. On Kalshi, the price of a "yes" contract on Bass winning rose two cents within 15 minutes of the post, while on Polymarket roughly 20 accounts traded thousands of contracts in Bass's favor within six minutes.