Democrats Eye Texas Senate Upset as Talarico Outraises Paxton
James Talarico's $72 million haul and Ken Paxton's political baggage have Democrats calling Texas their best shot in decades, though Republicans say the state's structural edge still favors the GOP.
Texas Democrats have been here before: a Senate candidate surges nationally, raises enormous sums and pulls within striking distance in the polls. In 2018 it was Beto O'Rourke, who narrowly lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. This cycle it's state Rep. James Talarico, running against state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Democrats say they've learned to temper expectations, describing Texas privately as their best opportunity in years rather than a sure win. It has been roughly 30 years since a Democrat won statewide office in Texas, but both parties now consider the race competitive enough that Republicans are having to spend money defending typically safe territory.
"We have it in our top-tier states," said Lauren French, communications director for Senate Majority PAC, which also lists Maine, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Alaska, Iowa and Ohio among its targets.
Democrats point to several factors in their favor. Talarico, a seminarian, has drawn attention for invoking his Christian faith to reach unlikely supporters. Paxton, meanwhile, was impeached by the state House in 2023 — with 70% of Republicans in the chamber voting to impeach — before being acquitted in the state Senate. His wife also cited "biblical grounds" in a divorce filing last year.
On fundraising, Talarico has become one of the party's top earners nationally, bringing in $72 million since 2025 compared with Paxton's $16.8 million, giving him cheaper ad rates and more runway to reserve television time. Democrats also point to shifting support among Hispanic voters and independents away from President Donald Trump in the state.
Republicans counter that outside money will even the field. Tech billionaire Elon Musk is reportedly planning to pour millions into the race, and Trump is set to headline a Republican National Committee fundraiser in Houston this week benefiting the state party.
GOP strategists also plan to highlight past remarks by Talarico, including a comment that God is "nonbinary." National Republican Senatorial Committee press secretary Bernadette Breslin argued the qualities Democrats like about Talarico "make him unelectable in a Texas general election."
Above all, Republicans point to Texas's decades-long Republican lean. "As soon as the negative ads start flying, I think they'll dip from there," RNC press secretary Natalie Baldassarre said of polls showing a close race.
This article was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI), in accordance with our editorial policy.
